Get the finishing touches on player prop model to potentially transition towards betting props as the major source of picks.Potentially break the season up into three phases (early, middle, end) and use different parameter sets for each to try to best identify value across varying bookmaking environments.Take a look at backtesting data for potential fall-off in profits as a function of time in the season.Just want to remind everyone that this is a distinct possibility while we're riding the highs of some sustained success To Do Enjoy the wins while we have them, hopefully we keep it up forever, but there will likely be a point where we go on an extended downswing. I have no illusions that 68+% win rate betting on 75% of games is sustainable. Thanks everyone for the kind words in both comments and DMs! We have been having a lot of success lately, and I just want to warn everyone: there will come a point where luck will swing around. Hoping to find some good spots to improve! Once again, I haven't been able to do any further profitability analysis, have plans to but won't be able to until Sunday or Monday. We will be switching to dogs being 1u going forward. Update: Did some further backtesting analysis, we're not winning with underdogs as often as I thought. The real tragedy was the Bills losing last night.īets are anything model predicts at higher than 55% win probability. Season-To-Date:ģ05-142 (68.40%), Avg odds 1.66, +177% ROI, 9.8% Yieldįull season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $1000 initial bankroll Reddit Picks:

There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team. This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. * Gambler's Anonymous Contact Information. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER and visit /r/problemgambling /r/sportscontests - Paid and free sports contests.Ģ1+ only./r/sportsbookreview - Review the books you use.Up to $1500 Back in Bonus Bets Click for Promoĭevigger Tool | Devigger Explanation | Devigger Update Up to $1000 Back in Bonus Bets Click for Promoīet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Click for PromoĢnd Chance Free Bet Up to $500 Click for Promo Selling of picks is not allowed here and will be removed by the moderators.Ĭlick here to join our Discord chat Desktop, iOS, and Android apps available! Sportsbook Please try to keep all discussions under the daily threads.

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